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Bangladesh to outstrip India's per capita GDP, asserts IMF!

By Priti Kumari

Amid the global economic vulnerabilities due to the pandemic, institutions like the World Bank, IMF and many more are relentlessly divulging economic conditions through their various reports.

In the 'World Economic Outlook' report, IMF forecasts a sharp contraction of 10.3% in India's GDP. Before this, the World Bank and the RBI have predicted a shrinkage of 9.6% and 9.5% of India's gross domestic product (GDP), respectively. Nevertheless, the IMF affirms the bouncing back of India's GDP by 8.8%, in the next fiscal.

Other than this, what makes the news headline is the IMF astounding revelation on the slipping of India below Bangladesh in terms of per capita GDP. As per the report, India's per capita GDP is set to dive by 10.3% to $1,877 which is the lowest since the last 4 years. Contrastingly, Bangladesh will record a 4% growth in per capita GDP to $1,888.This might have startled laymen but it was quite known to economists, as some of them like Global Parity Ranking, Global Hunger Index etc., Bangladesh is performing far better than India.

At the same instant, IMF avers that amongst the south Asian countries Indian economy is most badly hit by the pandemic after Sri Lanka. Other than this, IMF claims that after Pakistan and Nepal, India is the 3rd poorest country in South Asia, quite beyond Bangladesh, Bhutan, Sri Lanka and the Maldives.

Commenting on this, IMF stated, India's economic contraction in 2020 will be it's worst since the 1990-91 economic crisis when the per capita GDP had contracted 17.5% in 1991. India's GDP per capita in dollar terms had last contracted 1% year-on-year in 2012 due to currency depreciation. India's per capita GDP in dollar terms contracted on 8 occasions in 40 years,5 of which occurred before 2000.

However, commenting on the world economic health, IMF's Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said, "In our latest World Economic Outlook, we continue to project a deep recession in 2020.Global growth is projected to be -4.4%, an upward revision of 0.8% points compared our June update".

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